GA-Sen: 40% odds of a winner on Nov 4th, 70% chance that winner would be Nunn

DKE is not simulating a Georgia runoff because

there aren't enough pollsters putting out samples that include both a Nunn/Perdue/Swafford permutation and a permutation that's Nunn/Perdue alone. None of the five [now 6] most recent polls, for instance, have that.

.

DKE's current mashup of polls has Nunn 48.6%, Perdue 47.0% and Swanson (L) 4.4%.

Today's 29% chance of Michelle Nunn winning is the chance Nunn wins outright on Nov 4th, avoiding a runoff. Perdue's chances as of Monday were just 13%! Nunn was at 27% then, for a 40% chance of an outright winner on Nov 4th.

29% divided by 40%, results in a 72.5% chance of Nunn winning if there's an outright winner.*

*If you assume Perdue held steady at 13%, then there's a 69% chance that Nunn's the winner IF there's an outright winner.